Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.469371 0.541906 0.620337 0.711246 0.813509 0.924776 1.054784
2025-05-25 0.357117 0.450630 0.559470 0.694758 0.857600 1.046438 1.281078
2025-06-01 0.287450 0.394596 0.528205 0.705277 0.931787 1.209645 1.573808
2025-06-08 0.229617 0.342817 0.493890 0.706903 0.995571 1.368725 1.882309
2025-06-15 0.194598 0.314889 0.486084 0.741782 1.107057 1.602009 2.313441
2025-06-22 0.151243 0.266674 0.442465 0.721151 1.141191 1.737851 2.633062
2025-06-29 0.120145 0.230654 0.410472 0.712335 1.190942 1.901309 3.009972
2025-07-06 0.094566 0.197960 0.377767 0.697140 1.229013 2.052309 3.386018
2025-07-13 0.080250 0.181903 0.369673 0.720417 1.330314 2.309428 3.947126
2025-07-20 0.065751 0.161938 0.350998 0.722649 1.397405 2.520341 4.458300
2025-07-27 0.055702 0.148505 0.341910 0.740544 1.493450 2.787930 5.085501
2025-08-03 0.047596 0.137177 0.334778 0.760935 1.596413 3.077249 5.774806
2025-08-10 0.036766 0.116588 0.305182 0.734439 1.613672 3.228132 6.258451
2025-08-17 0.027655 0.097111 0.273478 0.697858 1.606668 3.335748 6.679316
2025-08-24 0.022201 0.085663 0.257721 0.692831 1.661903 3.563587 7.336785
2025-08-31 0.017585 0.074840 0.240831 0.682136 1.704079 3.771488 7.977806
2025-09-07 0.015118 0.070029 0.238564 0.705825 1.823389 4.141419 8.955119
2025-09-14 0.011499 0.059368 0.217222 0.678237 1.825352 4.277907 9.498084
2025-09-21 0.009003 0.051636 0.202165 0.663729 1.854998 4.473633 10.173586
2025-09-28 0.006941 0.044468 0.186632 0.644640 1.870874 4.641691 10.807622
2025-10-05 0.005937 0.041579 0.184357 0.662457 1.979262 5.018252 11.895711
2025-10-12 0.004818 0.037366 0.176187 0.661387 2.039967 5.295613 12.798978
2025-10-19 0.004086 0.034764 0.173140 0.675393 2.141685 5.674201 13.944594